Kentucky Derby / Kentucky Oaks
Futures Pool Three
By Jack Phelps, Kentucky Downs

With Oaklawn's The Arkansas Derby, and Keeneland's The Blue Grass Stakes still pending, Kentucky Derby Futures consensus is still wide open. Each of the three pools has had a different favorite: the Field in the first, Pyro in the second, and now Big Brown in the third on the strength of his win in Gulfstream's The Florida Derby.

The betting in Pool Three seems to reflect this wide-open confusion regarding this year's Kentucky Derby. The Third Pool handled only $291,835, the third-lowest Third Pool ever, and the three-pool total -- $1,056,520 -- is the second-lowest ever since the inception of Churchill Downs' futures better, surpassing only the $676,233 in the first-ever pool of 1999. Another way of looking at this same instant snapshot: there already are $1,056,520 wagered on The Kentucky Derby and most of the potential contenders are not yet on the grounds of Churchill Downs.

Six contenders are underlaid in Pool Three: Blackberry Road is 46-to-1, down from Mike Battaglia's morning line 50-to-1; Colonel John, who won The Santa Anita Derby, dropped to 6-to-1 from morning line 15-to-1; Smooth Air is at 15-to-1 down from morning line 50-to-1; Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial and dropped to 18-to-1 from morning line 30-to-1; Visionaire is 19-to-1 down from morning line 20-to-1, and the Field us at 14-to-1 down from morning line 15-to-1. After Pool Two, I was worried that we would not again see 6-to-1 on the Field, but the Third Pool was the field bet to have if you like anyone of the unnamed horses. Every other contender either remains the same or is overlaid.

Okay . . . let's talk race horses. Everyone was impressed with Big Brown's front-running Florida Derby . . . 45 and four fifths, one-ten flat, one-thirty-five flat, and one-forty-eight flat. (Or more exactly: 45:83, 1:10.08, 1:35.18 and 1:48.16.) The colt just kept coming! The premise behind all the chalk betting in the Third Pool, of course, is that he will repeat his lightening front end in the mile and a quarter the first Saturday in May.

That may be the way to bet, and it may not. The other "big" frontrunner, last year's two-year-old champion War Pass, had trouble in the Wood. Pressed early by Mott's rabbit Inner Light, the frontrunner set fractions of 46.07, 1:11.50, 1:38.42, but was running out of steam in the stretch, and Tagg's Tale of Ekati, who stalked the pace all the way around, squeezed through on the inside to win the Wood Memorial by a half-length in 1:52.35. A very slow mile and an eighth up Aqueduct Saturday. Speed handicappers are pretty much ignoring that slow, slow Wood, though Tale of Ekati has dropped to 18-to-1 in the Third Pool. Meanwhile, out west, Colonel John won The Santa Anita Derby impressively, stalking at the half in 47.57, but sliding about six and a half lengths off the six-furlong pace of 1:11.64, then within five lengths at a 1:35.50 mile pace, kicked in the stretch to win closing in 1:48.16 by half a length . . . the exact same time in which Big Brown won The Florida Derby! But on a synthetic surface? No one I know has yet calculated the differences in time between synthetic and natural tracks. (Note please: some good horses run well on any surface: dirt, grass or Polytrack. Some, however, do not. And therein lies the "gut feel" for handicapping.)

The surface at Churchill is natural dirt and famed for its "cuppiness." It's still a coin toss, and handicappers apparently are still torn by what to make of this season's preps. Can Big Brown repeat his early fractions, or will both he and War Pass, with or without a pace-pushing rabbit, both try to rate a bit off the pace? About Pyro, they're saying at Kentucky Downs, "He started twice this year, kicked twice this year, and won twice this year . . . what more could you want?" Well . . . I want a lock? Before I bet the farm on a closer kicking in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, I want to see how he does in the Blue Grass -- where he figures to be dead-cert, solid chalk despite the presence of Cool Coal Man and Visionaire - and when he's done it, whatever it is, how does Keeneland synthetic track figure for Churchill's "cuppiness"? It's a puzzle. A real gut check.

I'm worried about Colonel John . . . I admit to a slight East-Coast prejudice regarding The Kentucky Derby, and Colonel John is the only entry I've left out of my calculations for dutching the Kentucky Derby in the three futures pools. Likely, that means he will win, but only if you think the racing gods pick me personally to persecute. My long shot is Gayego; I have a ten-spot on him in Futures Pool Two at odds of 99-to-1. The odds on cashing that one? "Slim," I would say, "or none." But wouldn't he be wonderful?

Blackberry Road, Gayego, Indian Sun, King's Silver Sun, Liberty Bull and Z Fortune are all in down Oaklawn for The Arkansas Derby . . . but I cannot imagine how they will contribute to greater confusion in this year's Kentucky Derby. One thing is certain: we're all going to know following the big race May 3.

Of much less apparent interest, The Kentucky Oaks Futures Pool Three totaled only $47,116, and the three-pool total was $174,838. A new favorite has emerged on the strength of her Grade II Fantasy win at Oaklawn Sunday: Eight Belles at 5-to-1, down from Mike Battaglia's morning line of 8-to-1. Also underlaid in the pool are Bsharpsonata, 8-to-1 down from 12-to-1; Little Belle, 11-to-1 down from 30-to-1; She's All Eltish, 12-to-1 down from 30-to-1 -- she won the Grade II Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream on Florida Derby Day - and the Field, 11-to-1 down from 15-to-1. Rounding out the chalkier entries, though overlaid, are Proud Spell at 6-to-1, up from 4-to-1; Country Star, 7-to-1 up from 5-to-1; and Pure Clan, 8-to-1, the same as her morning line.

— Jack Phelps